oil

THE END OF OIL.

We are due to run out of oil. When (not IF, but WHEN) this happens, it will be catastrophic for humankind. If you think that I am exaggerating, read the following quotes from authoritative sources:-

The following quotes are from the book How Everything Can Collapse, by Pablo Servigne (an agronomist with a PhD in biology) and Raphael Stevens, published by Polity, 2020,

Pages 32 to 34:- The author introduces the concept of EROI (The energy return on investment). At present, when drilling for oil, one unit of (labour and materials) energy is expended to procure 11 units of (oil) energy. There are also EROI “ratios” for coal, natural gas, etc. The author tells us that “All these EROIs are not only declining, but declining at an accelerating rate. The author then tells us that “Renewable energy does not have the potential to offset the decline in fossil fuel.” The author then quotes Gail Tverberg, actuary and specialist in the economics of energy:- “We are told “Renewables will save us”, but this is basically a lie.”

The following quotes are from the book The Long Emergency, by James Howard Kunstler, published by Atlantic Books, 2005.

Page 34:- “All credible authorities agree that these special and precious pockets of fossil hydrocarbons will all be gone by the end of the twenty-first century - - - - Even under the most favourable circumstances, the Arabian oil endowment would not last more than another fifty years.” (My comment:- Since the book was published in 2005, this leaves just 33 years before the Arabian oil runs out.)

Page 100:- Based on everything we know right now, no combination of so-called alternative fuels or energy procedures will allow us to maintain daily life in the United States the way we have been accustomed to running it under the regime of oil. No combination of alternative fuels will even permit us to operate a substantial fraction of the systems we currently run - - - - WE ARE IN TROUBLE. (My capitals.)

Page 1:- “We are - - - sleepwalking into the future - - - now headed off the edge of a cliff. Beyond that cliff is AN ABYSS OF ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DISORDER ON A SCALE THAT NO ONE HAS EVER SEEN BEFORE.” (My capitals.)

Page 101:- “The belief that “market economics” will automatically deliver a replacement for fossil fuels is a type of magical thinking like that of the cargo cults of the South Pacific.”

Page 125:- The author comments on solar panels:- “The solar panels - - - - are subject to ultraviolet degradation.”

Page 238:- “Obvious and growing peril - - - the way of life we have constructed can’t possibly go on much longer.”

Page 240:- “The “losers” can be summarized generally as the future and its inhabitants. They stand to lose - - - - their civilisation.”

Pages 248 to 249:- “Suburbia has a tragic destiny. More than half the US population lives in it. - - - The whole system will not operate without - - - - reliable supplies of cheap oil and natural gas. Suburbia is going to lose its value catastrophically. - - - - the collapse of suburbia as a viable mode of living - - - - Unfortunately, no amount of political legerdemain will keep suburbia running.”